Time: 6:30 PM ET, Jan. 23, 2022
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Current Line: KC -2.5

THE PICK:

The Chiefs are still king of the hill and hold advantages in the kicking game, especially the return game with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. K Harrison Butker holds the edge over Tyler Bass. The most important edge though is at the top – Andy Reid vs. Sean McDermott. Nothing against McDermott, but Reid will make the Chiefs elite offense go and the Chiefs, who are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games, will win and cover.

Back the Chiefs -2.5

For the fourth time in less than two years, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will play each other. The Chiefs hold a 2-1 advantage, but lost the last meeting played between the two teams. That game was played in Week 5 of this season. It was a game in which Buffalo scored 17 unanswered points in the second quarter and went on to win 38-20. The Bills gained 436 yards on offense and forced four Chiefs’ turnovers.

That game came in what could be called Kansas City’s 2021 season Part I. The Chiefs started the season 3-4 and the defense was absolutely terrible. In Kansas City’s first five games, the Chiefs allowed 29, 36, 30, 30, and 38 points. If not for a gifted offense, the Chiefs would not have won two of those first five games.

Then, something interesting happened. After their first seven games, the Chiefs defense began to improve…and they began to win. KC would go on to win its next eight games in a row. Minus their 34-28 win over the Chargers, Kansas City did not allow a team to score more than 17 points. They held five of those eight teams to 10 points or less.

In last week’s wild card win over Pittsburgh, the defense allowed just 56 rushing yards and 257 for the game. The Steelers scored a defensive touchdown and scored on two long drives after they were down 35-7. After Pittsburgh scored on a fumble return, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes in the span of about 12 minutes to give the Chiefs that lead.

Speaking of wild card games and offense, the Bills set a number of NFL playoff records last week when they beat New England 47-17. Right from the beginning, the Bills were in control and played one of the most perfect games a team can play. Buffalo became the first team in NFL playoff history to score a touchdown on each of its first seven drives.

The Bills never punted, did not turn the ball over, and never attempted a field goal. They would total 482 yards of offense for the game and QB Josh Allen would throw five touchdown passes. The defense was just as good. The Bills led 27-0 before Nick Folk kicked a field goal at the very end of the first half. New England scored its first touchdown late in the third quarter and tallied another meaningless touchdown with just 1:44 to play to set the final score.

Buffalo led the NFL this season in scoring defense giving opponents just 16.1 points per game. If you factor out Kansas City Part I (the first seven games of the season), you’ll find similar numbers for the Chiefs. In their last 11 games, Kansas City has allowed just 16.5 points per game.

Remember though, this is 2022 and the old adage “defense wins championships” doesn’t hold up the way it used to. These days, elite offenses beat those championship defenses. The question on Sunday is which of these two offenses will come out on top?

Well, it’s interesting that in all 12 Buffalo wins this season, the Bills have won by at least 12 points. That includes the win over the Chiefs earlier this season. When the teams played last year, Allen wasn’t as sharp as he was this year. In that game back in Week 5, Allen had 315 passing yards, 59 rushing yards and four total touchdowns.

For Kansas City, Mahomes leads an offense that has averaged 36.5 points over its last six games. They hit the 40-point mark twice in that span. Yes, Buffalo has the league’s best defense, but the Chiefs are at home where they have won seven in a row and covered each of the last five.

As for Mahomes, in games where his Chiefs are a three-point favorite or shorter (including being the underdog), Kansas City is 14-4-1 – that’s a 78 percent winning percentage – ATS. They have won nine of the last 11 such games with the only losses coming in last year’s Super Bowl and against Buffalo earlier this season.

The Chiefs are still king of the hill and hold advantages in the kicking game, especially the return game with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. K Harrison Butker holds the edge over Tyler Bass. The most important edge though is at the top – Andy Reid vs. Sean McDermott. Nothing against McDermott, but Reid will make the Chiefs elite offense go and the Chiefs, who are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games, will win and cover.

Back the Chiefs -2.5

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