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NFL Betting picks

Get our latest NFL betting picks for today and the week ahead, covering spreads, moneylines, totals and player props. Every pick comes with the line we’re backing and our analysis of why we think there’s value in the bet.

Dan Anderson
Written by Dan Anderson
Senior Sports Betting Analyst Updated Sep 24, 2026 4 min read
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Today’s NFL Betting Picks

These are the NFL bets that stand out to us right now. Each pick includes the line we’re backing and a short explanation of what we see in the matchup. For more information, click yourself into the specific pick and read more.

Our NFL Picks Record

Every NFL pick we publish is added to our record, whether it wins or loses. We track the result, published odds and profit or loss in units so you can see how our NFL picks have performed over time.

Picks record

Settled picks17
Win rate41.2%
Net units−6.8
ROI−20.7%
Average odds-107

Results: 7 won · 10 lost · 0 pushed

Last five W L L L W

Based on published, settled picks. Pushes are excluded from win rate.

We track our results in units instead of dollars. One unit represents the amount we would normally bet on a pick. If 1 unit is $20 and our record is +5 units, that equals a $100 profit.

How We Choose Our NFL Picks & Predictions

The team we expect to win isn’t necessarily the team we want to bet. Our NFL picks are based on whether the available line gives us enough reason to take a position.

That starts with the matchup itself. We consider how the teams match up on both sides of the ball, injuries, expected game script, recent performance and any changes that could affect how a team plays. The line matters just as much. A team we like at -2.5 might be far less attractive at -4, while a player prop can quickly lose its appeal after the market moves.

For NFL games, some of the areas we pay particular attention to include:

  • Quarterback and offensive line matchups
  • Injuries and expected player availability
  • Offensive and defensive tendencies
  • Expected pace and game script
  • Weather conditions
  • Rest, travel and scheduling
  • Opening lines and subsequent market movement

NFL Picks by Bet Type

Our NFL picks aren’t limited to one market. Depending on the matchup and the available lines, we may find the better opportunity on the moneyline, the game total or an individual player prop.

NFL Moneyline Picks

Picking the winner is only part of a moneyline bet but we also need to like the price. A strong favorite can be too expensive to back, while an underdog can be worth a bet if we believe its chances of winning are better than the odds suggest.

NFL Spread Picks

The point spread gives one team a handicap and the other an advantage. If the Chiefs are -3.5, they need to win by at least 4 points for that bet to cover. If the Bills are +3.5, they can either win the game outright or lose by no more than 3 points for the bet to win.

For our spread picks, we compare that number with how close we expect the game to be. A favorite may be worth backing if we expect a comfortable win, while an underdog can be our pick if we think the points give us enough protection.

NFL Over/Under Picks

For totals, we focus on how we expect the game to play out. Offensive and defensive matchups, pace, injuries and likely game script all matter, while wind and other weather conditions can have a significant impact on certain games. We then compare that outlook with the sportsbook’s total to decide whether we prefer the over or under.

NFL Player Prop Picks

Player props give us a much wider range of NFL markets to work with, from passing and rushing yards to receptions and touchdowns. We look at expected playing time, carries, targets and the matchup to estimate a player’s likely involvement, then compare that with the line available.

Where to Bet Our NFL Picks

NFL lines aren’t always identical from one sportsbook to another. A spread could be -2.5 at one site and -3 at another, while the odds on the same player prop can also vary.

Comparing sportsbooks before placing a bet can therefore make a difference. Hence, a good idea is to check out our guide to the best football betting sites which compares legal US sportsbooks for NFL odds, markets, live betting and overall betting experience.

NFL Betting Picks FAQ

Dan Anderson

From the author

Dan Anderson

Senior Sports Betting Analyst

I created this page to keep all of my NFL picks in one place and make the results easy to judge over time. I want the matchup and the available line to give me a reason to bet where every published pick remains part of the record whether it wins or loses.