Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee’s Empty Drives Make the Higher Under Worth It

Tennessee’s empty possessions

Tennessee followed its opening field goal against Houston with eight empty possessions: four punts, two turnovers and two failed fourth-down attempts. The Titans finished with 187 yards in the 26-3 loss, while Cam Ward was sacked four times and pressured throughout the afternoon.

That was the low point, but not an isolated one. Tennessee has scored 10, 20, 7, 18 and 3 points, and all five of its games have finished with 44 points or fewer. Ward is averaging 5.8 yards per attempt with three passing touchdowns across 155 attempts. There are occasional flashes, but not enough sustained production to assume even Indianapolis’ struggling defense will suddenly turn this into a shootout.

Indianapolis keeps settling for three

Indianapolis can control this matchup without scoring into the 30s. Daniel Jones is also averaging 5.8 yards per attempt, with three touchdown passes and four interceptions, while Jonathan Taylor is gaining 3.9 yards per carry. The Colts have produced 11 touchdowns but made 16 field goals through five games.

That scoring profile was especially clear in Pittsburgh. Indianapolis reached 22 points with only one touchdown because Spencer Shrader kicked five field goals, including four after drives reached the Steelers’ 25-yard line. The Colts had entered that game as an efficient red-zone offense, so some improvement is reasonable. Still, Tennessee has allowed only 21.8 points per game, and its defense repeatedly forced Houston to settle for early field goals before wearing down in the second half.

A Colts win in the 23- or 24-point range is more plausible than the favorite running away early.

The value of 44.5

The concern is Indianapolis’ defense, which has allowed 27.6 points and 6.0 yards per play. It ranks 26th in EPA allowed per play and has generated only two takeaways, leaving room for Tennessee to find its best offensive game of the season.

That weakness makes Indianapolis -7 difficult to trust, while Tennessee +7 carries its own risk because the Titans’ turnovers can create late separation. The total isolates the more consistent part of this matchup: Tennessee’s inability to finish drives and Indianapolis’ tendency to turn scoring opportunities into field goals.

Paying six cents to move from Under 43.5 to Under 44.5 is worthwhile. One Titans game has already landed on 44, and that extra point protects another 24-20 result. My projection is Indianapolis 24, Tennessee 16. The bet is Under 44.5 at -108 with BetMGM.