St Louis Blues at New York Rangers: The Rangers’ Crease Strain Makes Plus Money Matter
St. Louis has the fresher schedule, better recent form and the stronger expected goaltending matchup. The Blues are worth backing at a plus price despite New York’s home record.
NHL
Recommended pick
New York Rangers
New York’s strong home record must be weighed against four straight losses, repeated early deficits and a depleted crease. St. Louis has enough form and goaltending upside to challenge the favorite’s price.
New York keeps chasing games
The Rangers were down 2-0 barely six minutes into Sunday’s 4-1 loss to Edmonton, continuing a problem that now matters more than the overall score. They have surrendered the opening goal in four straight losses and have trailed by multiple goals in the first period of three consecutive games.
That is a rough pattern for a team still trying to stabilize its crease. Igor Shesterkin is out for the season, Joonas Korpisalo has yet to return from his lower-body injury and James Reimer was signed on October 25 as emergency veteran depth. Dylan Garand has already appeared in 11 of New York’s 15 games, and his save percentage has slipped to.897 after another difficult start against Edmonton.
Garand is again the expected choice Tuesday, although neither starter had been officially confirmed at the time of writing. St. Louis is projected to counter with Joel Hofer, who brings a 6-3-1 record and.916 save percentage. That is the clearest matchup difference in a game otherwise priced close to even.
The home record has limits
The Blues are not arriving with spotless underlying form. They scored five times on just 15 shots in Saturday’s comeback win at Detroit and were held to nine shots through two periods. That kind of finishing is not something to project forward, especially against a Rangers team that is 6-2 at Madison Square Garden.
Still, New York’s home record is carrying too much weight in the moneyline. St. Louis has produced the better 10-game stretch, owns a slightly better season goal differential and gets an extra day between games. The Blues also showed enough composure in Detroit to turn a 4-2 third-period deficit into a regulation win, with scoring coming from multiple lines rather than one isolated matchup.
| Metric | St. Louis | New York |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 games | 6-4-0 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals per game | 3.5 | 2.9 |
| Goals allowed per game | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Season goal differential | +2 | -1 |
Plus money is the better route
The total is tempting because of New York’s recent defensive breakdowns, but Over 5.5 at -135 already charges a substantial premium for that concern. Hofer’s current form also creates a reasonable path to a lower-scoring game if the Rangers’ offense remains stuck. Under 5.5 runs too directly against New York’s crease uncertainty.
Neither puck line offers a better balance. St. Louis +1.5 at -235 requires too much risk for too little return, while New York -1.5 at +194 asks a four-game loser to create separation against a team with the better recent record.
My baseline makes this matchup close to a coin flip, with a small move toward St. Louis if Hofer is confirmed. Caesars’ +110 price only requires the Blues to win 47.6% of the time before accounting for the sportsbook hold. The Rangers can absolutely respond at home, but their goaltending strain and repeated slow starts make St. Louis Blues moneyline at +110 the better bet.
About the author
Senior Sports Betting Analyst
Dan Anderson is a Senior Sports Betting Analyst at Livesportsontv.com, specializing in NFL odds, bankroll management, and sportsbook promotions with over a decade of industry experience.