Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals: Familiar Lines Point to a Cooler Home Opener

Washington restores familiar combinations

Spencer Carbery is putting Anthony Beauvillier back with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome after Washington scored once in Saturday’s loss at Tampa Bay. This is less an experiment than a return to something established: the trio spent more than 400 even-strength minutes together last season and was Washington’s most frequently used forward combination.

Ryan Leonard’s move alongside Justin Sourdif and Boone Jenner also makes sense for controlling the middle of the lineup. Leonard and Sourdif outscored opponents 19-8 during more than 250 five-on-five minutes together last season, while Jenner gives that group a reliable faceoff option and experienced defensive presence.

Washington has also had Sunday off and two full practices since completing its opening back-to-back. That preparation window should help the Capitals settle into a more organized game than the pace Pittsburgh encountered against Philadelphia and Montreal.

The opening scoring spike needs context

Pittsburgh’s 13 goals through its first two games naturally pull attention toward the Over. The Penguins scored seven against Philadelphia, then built a 5-1 advantage before allowing Montreal to force overtime in a 6-5 finish. Those were eventful games, but not necessarily a sustainable template.

Winnipeg offered a more useful test Monday. The Jets clogged the neutral zone, limited Pittsburgh to two goals and turned the game with sustained pressure after the Penguins’ strong opening minutes. Washington has allowed five goals across its first two games, including only three while playing the second half of a road back-to-back in Tampa.

Current projections list Arturs Silovs and Logan Thompson as the expected goalies, although neither assignment was confirmed when this pick was made. Thompson stopped 31 of 33 shots in Washington’s opener, while Silovs followed a 19-save shutout in Philadelphia with a much less orderly night against Montreal. The Under case rests more on rested team structure than requiring either goalie to steal the game.

The total offers the cleaner price

Matt Roy’s lower-body injury is the concern. He missed Washington’s last two practices and remained day-to-day, potentially forcing Dylan McIlrath into the lineup and increasing the workload on the rest of the right side. That uncertainty is enough to keep me away from Washington’s -155 moneyline and especially the -1.5 puck line at +155.

Pittsburgh at +138 has some appeal, but backing the Penguins requires trusting their offense to solve a rested Capitals team after struggling with Winnipeg’s neutral-zone pressure. Taking Pittsburgh +1.5 at -170 is simply too expensive.

Under 6.5 at -105 with Fanatics offers the best balance. It still cashes with a 4-2 result and provides protection against a late empty-net goal. My projection is Washington 3, Pittsburgh 2.