Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs: Montreal’s Continuity Matters in Toronto’s Reset

Different stages of preparation

Toronto’s 6-1 preseason win over Ottawa naturally draws attention, especially with Auston Matthews and John Tavares each producing three points. The other half of the Leafs’ split squad also won 4-2, giving Jim Hiller’s new team a productive night at both ends of the highway.

Those results deserve some weight, but not enough to erase what happened earlier in camp. Montreal swept its two split-squad games against Toronto before beating Ottawa 3-2 in overtime, improving to 3-0 in exhibition play. Cole Caufield already has three goals, including two overtime winners.

More important than the scores, Montreal’s best players are returning to a familiar structure under Martin St. Louis. Toronto is working through major changes in management, coaching, personnel and defensive approach. Opening night is not an ideal spot to assume that many moving pieces will immediately function as a finished product.

The previous gap still counts

The Canadiens went 48-24-10 last season and reached the Eastern Conference Final. Toronto finished 32-36-14, last in the Atlantic, while allowing 295 goals, the NHL’s second-highest total.

Toronto responded aggressively. Matthews is healthy again, Gavin McKenna adds another dynamic playmaker, Darren Raddysh should improve the puck movement, and Sergei Bobrovsky brings championship experience in goal. That explains why the Leafs are a slight home favorite rather than a clear underdog.

Still, most of Toronto’s improvement is currently a projection. Montreal can lean on an established top line of Nick Suzuki, Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, with Ivan Demidov providing another dangerous transition threat. That group should test whether Toronto’s defensive habits have truly changed or merely looked cleaner against mixed preseason lineups.

Kaiden Guhle’s absence is the best argument against Montreal. His mobility and defensive work will be missed against Toronto’s skill. The Canadiens do retain high-end puck movement through Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson, however, and their broader continuity makes that injury easier to absorb than it would be for a thinner blue line.

Where the value sits

The puck lines offer little appeal. Montreal +1.5 at -240 requires too much juice, while backing Toronto -1.5 at +200 asks a reworked team to win comfortably against an opponent that was clearly better last season.

The 6.5 total is also difficult to price confidently before the starting goalies are confirmed. Bobrovsky is coming off an.877 save percentage, but his rebound potential and Toronto’s intended defensive changes create a wide range of outcomes. Montreal also has multiple credible options in net.

That leaves the cleanest value on the side. My projection gives Montreal roughly a 53% chance to win, enough separation from the 50% break-even point at even money. The recommendation is Montréal Canadiens moneyline at +100 with Fanatics.