Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights: Bedard’s Absence Widens Vegas’ Margin Advantage

Chicago opens short-handed

Connor Bedard was still not close to joining Blackhawks practice as of September 23, confirming that Chicago will begin the season without the player who drove its offense. Bedard produced 75 points in 69 games last season for a team that averaged only 2.56 goals, tied for 30th in the NHL.

Patrick Kane’s return and Bowen Byram’s arrival should make Chicago more dangerous, while Anton Frondell flashed considerable upside with nine points in his first 12 NHL games. Those upgrades matter over an 84-game season. They do not fully solve the immediate problem of asking Frondell, Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore to handle major center responsibilities against Vegas’ experienced spine.

Chicago can stay competitive if Spencer Knight supplies high-end goaltending and its improved defense exits cleanly. Without Bedard, however, there is less room for error once the Blackhawks fall behind or have to manufacture offense against set coverage.

Vegas can create separation

Vegas has its own adjustment to make after trading Pavel Dorofeyev, whose 37 goals included 20 on the power play. Ryan Craig is also beginning his first season as an NHL head coach. Those changes prevent this from being an automatic play on the favorite.

The remaining matchup advantage is still substantial. Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone and Tomas Hertl give Vegas multiple lines capable of sustaining possession, and the Golden Knights ranked fourth in offensive-zone time percentage last season. Chicago, meanwhile, allowed 3.29 goals per game, 27th in the league.

Vegas also finished first in the Pacific and reached the Stanley Cup Final, so this is not merely a bet against Chicago’s youth. The Golden Knights have the puck-control profile to make the Blackhawks defend for extended shifts, particularly if Chicago’s young centers struggle on exits or turn defensive-zone recoveries into rushed clears. That game script creates both five-on-five separation and a possible empty-net route to a two-goal margin.

The plus price matters

The Vegas moneyline at -245 requires too much confidence for an opener featuring a new coach and some roster turnover. The totals are less appealing before the starting goaltenders are confirmed: Bedard’s absence supports the under, but Chicago’s defensive questions and Vegas’ scoring depth pull the other way.

Vegas -1.5 at +105 is the cleaner price. It carries an implied probability of about 48.8%, while my projection puts the Golden Knights’ chance of winning by multiple goals near 52%. The projected score is Vegas 4, Chicago 2.

Chicago should be better this season, and Byram’s preseason impact is an early reminder of that upside. This matchup arrives too soon for the rebuild, though. The recommendation is Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 at +105 with Caesars.