Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore’s Rio Return Makes 11.5 Too Much

Baltimore’s unsettled middle

Baltimore is preparing a rookie guard to start at center just days after escaping Rio with a 34-31 win over Dallas. Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic suffered injuries expected to keep them out for an extended period, leaving first-round pick Vega Ioane to move from right guard and handle the protection calls and exchanges with Lamar Jackson.

Jackson was also limited on Wednesday’s injury report, while edge rusher Trey Hendrickson and defensive tackle Calais Campbell did not practice. None of those updates guarantees a reduced role Sunday, but they matter when Baltimore is being asked to cover 11.5 points rather than simply win.

The Ravens have earned favorite status with 30.7 points and 6.7 yards per play through three games. Their ceiling is obvious. The question is whether this is the right spot to price them as a nearly two-touchdown favorite after international travel and a disruptive week along the offensive line.

Tennessee can defend the number

Tennessee’s offense has produced only 12.3 points per game, but the other side of the roster offers a real reason to take the points. The Titans rank eighth in yards allowed per play at 4.9, seventh against the pass at 189 yards per game and 10th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.

That defense did not allow a touchdown in last week’s 12-7 loss to the Giants, holding New York to 238 yards and stopping both red-zone trips short of the end zone. Jeffery Simmons is playing disruptive football inside, and Tennessee is allowing only 3.6 yards per rush despite facing 104 carries, the kind of volume that usually wears down a defense.

The Titans have lost by 13, four and five points. Only the opener finished outside this spread, and the defense has kept the past two games close enough for Cam Ward to have a late chance. Tennessee does not need Ward to match Jackson drive for drive. It needs to avoid the empty first halves that have repeatedly forced its offense into comeback mode.

The better cushion

There is risk in backing Tennessee. Starting guards Fernando Carmona Jr. and Jackson Slater have gone to injured reserve, and running backs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears both missed Wednesday’s practice. Baltimore’s speed can turn a few failed protections into a quick double-digit deficit.

Still, the Ravens have not consistently protected leads. Opponents have scored 32 fourth-quarter points against them, including a 15-0 Dallas run after Baltimore went ahead by 11 last Sunday. That late volatility is useful when holding more than a touchdown and a field goal.

Under 43 is tempting given Tennessee’s scoring problems, but Baltimore’s offensive explosiveness and 70 percent defensive red-zone touchdown rate leave too many paths to a total in the mid-40s. The spread offers more room for a competitive Tennessee defense and a possible late cover.

My projection is Baltimore 27, Tennessee 17. Tennessee Titans +11.5 at -110 with FanDuel is the better way to play it.