Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: Penix Gets the Matchup to Punish Chicago’s Uncertainty

The quarterback gap

Michael Penix Jr. took every first-team rep Wednesday and practiced fully despite the rib injury that kept him out of Atlanta’s overtime possession against Baltimore. That matters more than the Falcons’ 2-3 record. Atlanta ranked second in EPA per play from Weeks 3 through 5 with Penix running the offense after sitting 32nd before his return.

Chicago’s quarterback picture is much less settled. Caleb Williams was listed as a full participant in Wednesday’s estimated practice, but Ben Johnson had not committed to Williams, Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum. The coach also said the Bears would reduce the volume in their game plan and return to basics after last week’s offense produced 246 yards and five turnovers in a 31-7 loss at Green Bay.

That approach can steady Chicago, but it also makes it harder to justify the Bears as a road favorite against the healthier and more explosive starting quarterback.

Atlanta can dictate the matchup

Penix has been particularly effective pushing the ball downfield, ranking second among qualified quarterbacks in yards per attempt and explosive pass rate. That is the matchup Atlanta should press. The Bears have allowed 8.8 yards per pass attempt and seven completions of at least 40 yards through five games.

Chicago will also be without suspended edge rusher Montez Sweat, while Dayo Odeyingbo is likely to miss time with a quadriceps injury. Those absences remove two important pieces from a front that needs pressure to keep Penix from waiting on Drake London’s deeper routes. Left tackle Jake Matthews practicing fully strengthens Atlanta’s side of that matchup.

The Bears’ clearest answer is their rushing offense, which has accumulated 866 yards at 4.7 per carry. Atlanta, however, has conceded only 3.8 yards per rush and three rushing touchdowns. If the Falcons can keep Chicago behind schedule, whichever Bears quarterback starts will have to solve a defense allowing just 61.4% completions.

The price favors the home team

Atlanta’s secondary keeps this from being a larger position. Starting corner C.J. Henderson missed Wednesday’s practice with a groin injury, and a Williams return would give Chicago more ability to challenge that group. That uncertainty also makes the total difficult to attack: the under benefits from Chicago’s likely run emphasis, but Penix faces a defense vulnerable to explosive passes.

The spread offers Atlanta a small cushion, but at a near pick’em price I would rather take the plus money and require the Falcons to win. My projection is Atlanta 27, Chicago 23, making the Atlanta Falcons moneyline at +104 with FanDuel the preferred wager.