Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: Buffalo’s Short Week Makes Eight Points Valuable

A demanding turnaround

Buffalo’s 23-6 win at Minnesota required a season-high 44 rushing attempts and more than 42 minutes of possession. That was an effective way to handle a difficult road assignment, but it also meant a heavy workload before another away game six days later.

The Bills’ estimated Wednesday practice report listed four starting offensive linemen as limited: center Connor McGovern, tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, and guard Alec Anderson. None had been ruled out, and participation estimates following a Monday game deserve caution. Still, it is not an ideal setup for laying more than a touchdown on the road.

Buffalo is 4-0 away from home, but three of those wins came by five points or fewer. The exception was Monday’s 17-point victory over a Minnesota team that started Carson Wentz and produced only 81 passing yards. Geno Smith gives New York a much better chance to answer if Buffalo starts quickly.

New York can answer

The Jets’ 2-7 record makes this spread look modest at first glance, but five of their seven losses have come by seven points or fewer. Their three home defeats were by three, three and five points before last week’s 35-12 loss at Kansas City.

Smith has completed 67.5% of his passes with 12 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 100.5 passer rating. New York has also scored on its opening possession in five consecutive games. That matters when taking eight points because an early Jets score can prevent Buffalo from immediately settling into a clock-draining, run-first script.

Garrett Wilson’s status remains important after he returned to limited work while in the concussion protocol. The Jets at least have Breece Hall back alongside Braelon Allen, giving them enough backfield depth to keep Buffalo from treating every early down as an obvious passing situation.

Eight points is the difference

Buffalo’s strongest argument is also the main threat to this bet. The Jets have allowed more than 140 rushing yards per game across their past four outings, dropping to 26th against the run. James Cook has 814 rushing yards, and the Bills should be comfortable returning to the heavier personnel packages they used in Minnesota.

New York’s red-zone defense is an even larger concern. Opponents have converted 11 consecutive red-zone possessions into touchdowns, while Buffalo has scored touchdowns on 66.7% of its trips inside the 20. If the Jets cannot force field goals, this can get away from them.

Even so, Buffalo -8 requires a nine-point victory, something the Bills have produced in only three of eight games. New York has enough offensive competence to stay within one possession or threaten a late cover, and the full eight provides protection against a common two-score sequence ending in an eight-point margin.

Projection: Buffalo 30, New York 24. Take the Jets +8 at -109 with BetRivers.