Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas’ Missing Spine Gives Baltimore the Control Edge

Dallas is thin where it matters

Dallas will head to Rio without linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, cornerback Cobie Durant and safeties Malik Hooker and P.J. Locke. That is not merely a high body count. The absences are concentrated through the middle and back end of a defense already struggling to maintain rush lanes, tackle in space and finish third downs.

Through two games, the Cowboys have allowed an NFL-worst 68% conversion rate on third down and 173.5 rushing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels combined for 126 rushing yards against them, also the highest total allowed by any defense.

Now Dallas gets Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Henry has 212 yards and four touchdowns on 40 carries, while Jackson has added 74 yards and a score on 11 attempts. Dallas can load the box, but doing so with two safeties unavailable puts considerable stress on replacements behind the play.

Possession can create the margin

The larger concern for Dallas is how that matchup can dictate the game’s rhythm. Baltimore averages 31:17 of possession and 409 yards per game. Dallas is 31st in possession time at 25:55, partly because its defense has repeatedly failed to end drives.

That creates a straightforward Baltimore script: lean on Henry, force the depleted second level to account for Jackson on every exchange and keep Dak Prescott watching from the sideline. It also gives the Ravens a better chance of separating late than their moneyline price of -174 suggests.

Prescott is the strongest argument for taking Dallas +3.5. He has completed 73.9% of his passes with six touchdowns and one interception, and Baltimore just allowed New Orleans to convert 8 of 15 third downs during a 24-17 Ravens loss. Dallas has enough passing-game firepower to punish another loose Baltimore coverage performance.

That threat is also why the under at 52.5 does not appeal. The over, however, requires paying a premium after two productive games from each quarterback and leaves little cushion if Baltimore successfully shortens the game.

The price favors the spread

Baltimore’s injury situation keeps this from becoming a larger play. Zay Flowers and Ronnie Stanley missed the first two practices of the week, limiting the Ravens’ downfield explosiveness and potentially weakening Jackson’s blind-side protection.

Dallas has only two sacks through two games, though, so the Cowboys have not shown the four-man pressure needed to fully exploit Stanley’s uncertain status. Baltimore can also reduce that exposure by staying ahead of schedule on the ground.

My projection is Baltimore 30, Dallas 24. The Ravens’ matchup advantage supports laying the points, while the near-even price is preferable to paying heavily for the moneyline. The recommendation is Baltimore Ravens -3.5 at -102 with FanDuel.