Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Purdy’s Protection Edge Stretches Arizona’s Secondary

Arizona’s coverage problem

Arizona’s cornerback room lost Will Johnson to injured reserve this week, and Wednesday’s practice report did not offer much immediate relief. Max Melton sat out with a toe injury, while Garrett Williams was limited as he works back from an Achilles injury. That is an uncomfortable setup against a quarterback coming off one of the sharpest performances of his career.

Brock Purdy completed 20 of 22 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns in the 35-13 win over Miami, adding another score on the ground. More important for this matchup, San Francisco has allowed no sacks through two games and generated 761 total yards. Arizona cannot count on its pass rush shortening plays before an undermanned secondary is forced to cover George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and San Francisco’s receivers in space.

Mike Evans’ hip injury and Demarcus Robinson’s high ankle sprain are legitimate concerns for the favorite. Still, seven 49ers caught a pass against Miami and four different players scored. This offense has enough distribution to survive one diminished receiving option.

The Cardinals’ response

Arizona has not shown the passing-game consistency needed to answer if San Francisco builds an early lead. Jacoby Brissett finished with 95 passing yards as the Cardinals managed just 151 total yards in a 31-7 loss to Seattle. Marvin Harrison Jr. has one reception through two games despite running 17 go routes, and multiple intended shots have broken down before Brissett could deliver the ball.

Seattle is the defending champion, so one poor offensive afternoon should not define Arizona. The Cardinals also opened with a 26-14 road win over the Chargers. That victory, however, included two forced turnovers and a blocked punt, with one touchdown drive covering only three yards. Arizona’s offense has yet to prove it can create points reliably when special teams and field position do not help.

San Francisco has conceded 20 points in two games and produced four sacks against Miami. The defensive front is dealing with some attrition, but the Cardinals’ lack of explosive passing production makes it difficult to attack that weakness.

Eight is the better number

The 49ers moneyline at -410 offers little value, while under 48 is vulnerable to Arizona’s cornerback shortage creating quick San Francisco scores. The spread is the cleaner way to play the matchup.

San Francisco has opened with consecutive wins by at least 20 points for the first time in franchise history. Another 20-point margin is not the expectation, particularly with a divisional opponent and some injuries on the favorite’s side. My projection is 30-17, which leaves room for Arizona to improve offensively without threatening the number.

Caesars’ San Francisco -8 is preferable to laying 8.5 elsewhere. The extra price preserves a push if the 49ers win by exactly eight, a worthwhile trade at this number. San Francisco -8 at -115 is the recommendation.