Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: Arizona’s Red-Zone Problems Leave Dallas Room to Pull Away

Arizona’s drives keep stalling

Arizona’s Wednesday injury report added another concern to an offense already struggling to finish drives. Right tackle Elijah Wilkinson and right guard Jon Gaines II did not practice, while running back Tyler Allgeier also sat out and Jeremiyah Love was limited. With left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. already lost for the season, the Cardinals could arrive in Dallas without continuity at multiple important spots.

The timing is especially bad because Arizona has converted just one of 10 red-zone opportunities over its past two games. That is not an isolated cold streak sitting on top of strong season-long numbers: the Cardinals’ 42.9% red-zone touchdown rate ranks last in the league. They have produced only 20.3 points per game despite ranking sixth in average time of possession.

Arizona can sustain drives, but too many end with field goals or empty possessions. That makes it difficult to keep pace if Dallas turns this matchup into a scoring-efficiency contest.

Dallas can separate with efficiency

The Cowboys finally found the balance they had been missing in Monday night’s 38-21 win at Philadelphia. Dallas ran 38 times for 204 yards, scored on seven of nine possessions and finished with a season-high 416 yards. Dak Prescott did not need huge passing volume; three touchdown passes and no interceptions were enough because the running game kept the offense on schedule.

That formula should translate against an Arizona defense allowing an NFL-high 29.7 points per game. Dallas enters Sunday ranked fifth in scoring and third in red-zone touchdown rate, converting 20 of 27 trips. Arizona has also allowed a league-high nine touchdowns from outside the red zone, so the Cowboys do not have to rely exclusively on long, methodical possessions to build a lead.

The concern is Dallas playing Sunday after a Monday road game. Its defense also remains near the bottom of the league in sacks and interceptions, giving Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride a route to move the ball. Still, Arizona’s inability to turn that movement into touchdowns is the matchup difference that matters most against the spread.

The price below seven

The moneyline at -320 is too expensive for a Dallas team with defensive flaws, while Under 54.5 becomes uncomfortable if the Cowboys exploit this secondary for 30-plus points. The spread offers the better expression of the matchup.

My projection is Dallas 34, Arizona 20. Taking -6.5 rather than -7 is worth the additional juice because it turns the most important margin in this range from a push into a win. Dallas Cowboys -6.5 at -115 with BetRivers is the play.