Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers: Dallas’ Lost Possessions Favor Indiana

Haliburton restores the structure

Tyrese Haliburton’s first regular-season game in 16 months immediately changed the shape of Indiana’s offense. He produced 23 points and 12 assists in Wednesday’s 123-120 win at New Orleans, while Pascal Siakam scored 30 and repeatedly delivered late.

The Pacers finished with 29 assists against 13 turnovers and shot 47-for-90 from the field. More encouraging for this spread, that production did not require an unsustainable shooting night: Indiana went only 9-for-30 from 3-point range and left nine points at the foul line.

Haliburton’s timing with Siakam already looked functional, and Andrew Nembhard added nine assists against two turnovers. That gives Indiana multiple ways to organize possessions against a Dallas defense that allowed Houston to record 32 assists in the opener. Haliburton now gets his first home game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in 492 days, adding some legitimate energy to a matchup Indiana can control tactically.

Dallas is losing possessions

Dallas’ 128-110 loss in Houston was not just about facing a stronger opponent. The Mavericks committed 21 turnovers, attempted only 79 shots and were outrebounded 42-33. Houston collected 17 offensive rebounds, extending possessions while Dallas struggled to create enough of its own.

That interior issue matters against Ivica Zubac, who opened his Pacers career with 16 points, 15 rebounds and four offensive boards. Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama missed Dallas’ opener, although the official injury report for Friday had not been submitted at the research cutoff. Their availability keeps this from becoming a larger stake.

Dallas does have a credible response. Cooper Flagg scored 32 points on 10-for-17 shooting, and Kyrie Irving added an efficient 15 in 24 minutes. The Mavericks can punish Indiana’s defense, which conceded 120 points and 37 free-throw attempts in New Orleans. But Dallas needs cleaner ball security and stronger defensive rebounding before those shot-makers can consistently keep the margin tight.

Buying below six

The over at 235.5 is tempting after these teams’ openers produced 243 and 238 points, but it requires more faith in Dallas’ offensive floor after that 21-turnover performance. Indiana’s moneyline is also too expensive at -210.

My projection is Indiana 123, Dallas 115. The available -5.5 is preferable to laying six at a slightly cheaper price; paying the extra 10 cents turns a six-point Pacers win from a push into a cover.

Indiana’s cleaner creation and its advantage around the glass provide more than a home-court argument. The recommendation is Indiana Pacers -5.5 at -115 with Caesars.