Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors: Claxton’s absence tilts the opener toward points

Chicago’s missing anchor

Nic Claxton has been ruled out for another two weeks after aggravating his hamstring during training camp, leaving Jalen Smith as Chicago’s likely starting center. That is more than a routine opening-night absence against this Toronto frontcourt.

Smith’s shooting can help the Bulls space the floor, but Claxton was acquired to supply switchability, rebounding and protection around the basket. Toronto can now involve Smith in actions with Jakob Poeltl while Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard attack from the wings. The Raptors should have paths to paint touches and second-chance opportunities without needing to live on difficult jumpers.

Chicago’s response is unlikely to be slowing the game down. Tiago Splitter has discussed using a nine- or 10-man rotation because he wants this group running, and Claxton’s absence only makes a smaller, quicker approach more likely.

Pace before polish

Both teams produced throughout the preseason. Chicago averaged 122 points over five games, while Toronto scored 122.4 per game. Those raw numbers deserve caution because rotations and opponent quality varied, but the underlying styles matter more than the final scores.

The Raptors generated 117.1 points per 100 possessions, sixth in the preseason, with Barnes and RJ Barrett carrying over their aggressive downhill play and Leonard adding shooting gravity. Leonard logged only 39 minutes across two appearances, so the offensive ceiling is obvious even if the timing of Toronto’s new combinations remains unfinished.

That lack of continuity showed more clearly at the other end. Toronto ranked 21st in preseason defensive efficiency and 22nd in first-quarter defense. Leonard and Barnes give the Raptors an imposing defensive ceiling, but opening night may arrive before the group consistently reaches it.

Chicago has enough creation through Josh Giddey and Norman Powell to take advantage. The Bulls do not need to control the game for this total; they need to keep pushing after Toronto scores and avoid the prolonged empty possessions that allow an opponent to set its defense.

A clearer route than the spread

The strongest objection is the number itself. A total of 235.5 leaves little room for an ordinary shooting night, and preseason offense can disappear once rotations tighten. That keeps the stake measured.

Still, the alternatives are less attractive. Chicago getting 9.5 points is tempting, but playing without Claxton against Toronto’s size makes the late margin difficult to trust. The Bulls moneyline at +320 asks for too much from a young team opening on the road.

My projection is Toronto 123, Chicago 116. That makes Over 235.5 at -108 with BetRivers the best available wager, with Chicago’s pace and compromised interior defense doing most of the work.