New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC: New York’s missing midfield tilts the matchup west

The postponement did not fix New York’s lineup

Saturday’s weather postponement gave both clubs four extra days before this rescheduled game, but it did not solve New York’s roster problem. The Red Bulls listed nine players out on international duty for the original date, including leading scorer Julian Hall and regular midfielders Ronald Donkor and Adri Mehmeti.

Those are not peripheral losses. Hall has 10 league goals, while Donkor has started 23 games and contributed two goals and six assists. Mehmeti started New York’s final seven league matches before the international window. Removing that much continuity from the central and attacking areas should make it harder for the Red Bulls to press cleanly and turn recoveries into chances.

St. Louis has absences of its own, but international call-up Damion Downs has made only five appearances since arriving on loan. The difference in expected lineup disruption is substantial.

St. Louis has more routes to goal

St. Louis arrives unbeaten in 18 games across all competitions and 16 straight in MLS, with 15 goals over its past five league matches. That production has not depended on one scorer. The 3-4-3 has pushed Conrad Wallem and Tomas Totland into dangerous areas, and both wingbacks are delivering: Wallem has nine goal contributions in eight games, while Totland has five in his past five.

Their width matters against a New York side missing several players who normally help sustain pressure and protect the middle. St. Louis can switch the point of attack, force the Red Bulls’ back line to defend a wider field and still bring multiple runners into the box.

New York’s strongest argument is its defense. Ethan Horvath has three shutouts in four league matches, and the Red Bulls have allowed only two goals during that span. Still, their two recent victories were both 1-0, with Hall scoring against New York City FC and Donkor producing the late winner at Columbus. Both match-winners are among the international absentees.

The moneyline offers the usable price

That defensive record makes Over 3.5 difficult to justify, while Under 3.5 at -135 carries the risk of St. Louis doing most of the scoring itself. The available +1.5 spread offers no useful return.

St. Louis City SC at -110 requires a win in roughly 52.4% of outcomes, a reasonable threshold given the visitors’ sustained form and New York’s depleted lineup. A draw is the main concern if Horvath and the Red Bulls’ back line produce another disciplined performance, but New York may struggle to offer enough going forward to relieve pressure for 90 minutes.

My projection is a 2-0 or 2-1 St. Louis victory. St. Louis City SC moneyline at -110 with BetMGM is the selection.