New York City FC vs CF Montreal: Montreal’s Missing No. 9 Changes the Total

A major piece is missing

Prince Owusu’s lower-body injury changes the shape of Montreal’s attack. The striker is listed out after scoring 15 of the club’s 36 MLS goals this season, meaning Montreal arrives without the player responsible for nearly 42% of its league output.

That is especially significant after the Bleu-blanc-noir were shut out by Atlanta and Nashville in two of their past three games. Montreal can still threaten through Daniel Ríos and Dante Sealy, but neither offers Owusu’s combination of finishing volume and presence as the central reference point.

New York City has its own important absence. Maxi Moralez is out with a leg injury after producing six assists and 28 key passes in 14 league appearances. Nicolás Fernández Mercau and Agustín Ojeda keep NYCFC dangerous, but losing Moralez removes an experienced solution against a Montreal side likely to defend in numbers.

The side prices ask too much

The side prices do not offer the same value. NYCFC at -175 is difficult to support for a team that is 4-5-6 at home and winless across its last five matches. Montreal’s +400 price catches the eye after four consecutive wins in this matchup, but backing a 2-2-11 road team without its leading scorer requires too much faith.

The draw at +310 is more interesting given NYCFC’s 11 ties this season. Still, one transition or set piece can ruin that ticket even if the broader game script is correct. Under 2.5 at +138 covers more of the likely outcomes.

All five meetings since July 2024 have stayed below this total: three finished 1-0 and two ended 2-0. That history is secondary to current personnel, but it reinforces how often Montreal has succeeded by narrowing the game rather than trading chances with New York.

The counterargument is clear. Montreal has conceded 62 goals, and both clubs have allowed nine across their last five. That explains why Over 2.5 costs -180. But that price requires three goals more than 64% of the time before accounting for the sportsbook’s margin, an aggressive demand with both teams missing an influential attacking piece.

A demanding Montreal schedule

Both clubs play Wednesday before meeting Saturday, although NYCFC stays at Citi Field while Montreal travels from Charlotte to New York. This will be Montreal’s fourth match in 11 days, a sequence that began with a 120-minute Canadian Championship final.

Fatigue can produce defensive mistakes, but it can also reduce pressing quality, transition speed and finishing sharpness. For Montreal, those attacking concerns are magnified without Owusu.

My projection lands near 2.4 total goals. At a plus-money price, BetRivers’ Under 2.5 is the better wager.