Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox: Chicago’s bullpen plan lowers the scoring ceiling

Chicago’s different kind of bullpen game

Chicago loaded the bases twice late Wednesday and still came away with only two runs, wasting its best chances in a second straight loss to Pittsburgh. The White Sox have scored five runs in the series and have now dropped seven of their last 10, with too many empty at-bats around the occasional home run.

That offensive form matters more to this total than Pittsburgh’s two victories. Chicago is expected to counter Jared Jones with a bullpen arrangement involving Hagen Smith, but this is not the standard patchwork setup that automatically points toward runs. Smith has allowed one earned run and five hits across his first 16 major-league innings, striking out 23. He retired all nine Twins he faced Sunday in his longest outing yet.

Pittsburgh’s surge has been concentrated

Smith’s limited workload means the Pirates will get multiple looks and likely plenty of right-handed pitching after the early innings. That is the clearest danger to an under, especially after Pittsburgh collected 28 hits while scoring 13 runs across the first two games.

Chicago’s relief corps, however, has earned more trust than the phrase “bullpen game” suggests. White Sox relievers entered this series with a 3.65 ERA, including a 2.85 mark since June 23. Smith, Grant Taylor and the other multi-inning options have allowed Will Venable to manage games without a conventional starter.

The Pirates’ nine-run opener also deserves context. Seven of those runs came in the first two innings against Sean Burke. They followed with four runs Wednesday, three coming against one reliever in the seventh. Pittsburgh is swinging well, but it has not produced relentless pressure across all 18 innings.

Why eight matters

Jones supplies the more traditional path to a low total. His 4.46 season ERA and 5.51 ERA over his last seven starts argue against treating him as dominant, but his most recent outing was his sharpest: six scoreless innings, three hits, one walk and nine strikeouts against the Angels.

A similar strike-throwing performance should play against a Chicago lineup that struck out 10 times Wednesday and has struggled to convert late opportunities. My projection lands around seven total runs, with Jones getting through at least five innings and the White Sox staff preventing another early Pittsburgh avalanche.

Pittsburgh used eight pitchers Wednesday, so late bullpen exposure keeps this from being a larger position. That is also why Under 8 at -115 with Fanatics is preferable to the plus-money Under 7.5. The full run of push protection is worth paying for in a game with two capable but imperfect relief plans.