Sunday football, week 9 - Patriots @ Panthers

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Time: 1:00 PM ET, Nov. 7, 2021
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
Current Line: Patriots -3.5  Total: 41

New England opened as a 2.5-point favourite over Carolina, but the line is shifting and may continue to move as Sunday approaches. Panthers QB Sam Darnold left last week’s game with Atlanta with a concussion and is still in the league’s concussion protocol. That leaves his status for Sunday’s game up in the air.

That is the primary reason for the line shift in this game. Now, whether he plays or not, there is value on the New England Patriots. Darnold, while he started the season looking much better than he ever did when he was with the Jets, has still been a very mediocre NFL quarterback.

Darnold is 25th in QB Rating and has seven touchdowns compared to eight interceptions so far this season. Before leaving last week’s game against Atlanta, Darnold had not thrown a pick, which was the first time he didn’t throw one since Week 3 of the season. However, Darnold completed just 13-of-24 passes for 129 yards against the Falcons before his exit.

Should Darnold not clear concussion protocol, the reins of the Panthers offense would be turned over to former XFL star P.J. Walker. That would be a significant downgrade. In a word, Walker is simply bad. In limited time this season, Walker has a DVOA rating – a measure of how valuable a quarterback is – that is negative. Actually, Walker’s rating is negative-98.1. Even if you don’t understand DVOA, that’s bad. For the record, last season Walker didn’t play much but when he did his completion percentage was 57.1 percent with five interceptions and one touchdown.

To make matters worse, Walker (or Darnold) has to go up against a Bill Belichick-coached defense. That would be the same Patriots defense that did a number on the Chargers Justin Herbert last week. Herbert was mentioned in the MVP discussion earlier this season. After last week, he’s probably not been talked about in relation to any award.

New England held Herbert to just 18 completions in 35 attempts. He totaled 223 yards and was sacked three times. The Patriots picked Herbert off twice and one was returned for a touchdown. That’s against Justin Herbert, one of the better young quarterback in the NFL. What will Belichick and the Patriots do to a young, inexperienced backup like Walker?

The Patriots have won three of their last four games and have a real shot at the postseason. If they want to get there, they need to win games like this one. They can do so by relying on the defense, which ranks eighth in points allowed (20.5) per game this season, and on their rookie quarterback Mac Jones.

The first-year starter has blossomed over the course of his first eight NFL games. Jones has thrown for 1,997 yards and nine touchdowns so far. Jones has led New England to two straight wins by making good decisions. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last two games and was only sacked once. He also almost led the Patriots to an upset of Dallas going 15-of-21 for 229 yards and two touchdowns.

Regardless of whether Darnold or Walker plays for Carolina, the Panthers will struggle on offense without star RB Christian McCaffrey who is still on injured reserve. Belichick loves to get after young, inexperienced quarterbacks and already has a track record of success against Darnold from his days as a New York Jet. Carolina scored 19 points last week and was held to a single field goal the week before in a 25-3 loss to the Giants. This is a Panthers offense that only averages 20.6 points per game. That could be bad news for Carolina.

Since an opening week loss to Miami, New England is 4-1 ATS when they hold their opponent to 24 points or less. That has been the case in all four Patriots wins this season. The Panthers, on the other hand, have not been so fortunate. Last week’s win over Atlanta was the team’s first in five weeks. Carolina has been equally as bad covering spreads. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

This is a game that should be a lower-scoring one. The Under is 9-2 in Carolina’s last 11 games and 5-2 in the Patriots last seven games on the road. That will allow New England to win and cover the 3.5 points, but jump on this number fast. If and when Walker is announced as the starting quarterback, this line could jump to a touchdown or more.