Sunday football, week 12 - Rams @ Packers

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Time: 4:25 PM ET, Nov. 28, 2021
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc.
Current Line: GB -1  Total: 48

Two NFC teams still very much alive in the race for their respective division title will meet in Green Bay on Sunday when the Los Angeles Rams come to town. Both teams have had their share of recent difficulties. The Rams have actually dropped two games in a row. Los Angeles managed just 16 points in a loss to Tennessee and then 10 last week in losing to NFC West Division rival San Francisco.

The Rams offense, which is tenth in scoring in the NFL, has cooled off recently. Part of that could be due to losing WR Robert Woods to a knee injury. The team went out and picked up Odell Beckham Jr. in the hope that he would serve as a capable replacement. In his first action last week, Beckham caught just two passes for 18 yards. That should change as he becomes more comfortable with the offense.

It’s been a struggle for Green Bay too over the past three weeks. First, there was the COVID diagnosis of QB Aaron Rodgers. That kept him out of the Packers game with the Chiefs on Nov. 7. Green Bay managed just seven points and lost 13-7. A week later, Rodgers returned but was rusty in a 17-0 win over Seattle. Ironically, Seahawks starting quarterback Russell Wilson was starting for the first time in four weeks in that game.

Last week, Rodgers was back in the saddle as he completed 23-of-33 passes for 385 yards and four touchdowns. It wasn’t enough though as the Minnesota Vikings kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired handing the Packers their second loss in three games.

Now, it’s worth noting that Green Bay’s two losses in their last three games were both on the road away from Lambeau Field. The Packers have played extremely well at home this season. They are unbeaten in home games with a perfect 4-0 record on the “Frozen Tundra.” Not only are the Packers unbeaten at home, they are also a perfect 4-0 against the spread. In their loss to Minnesota last week, the Packers streak of nine straight covers came to an end.

It was a rare performance on defense for Green Bay. The Packers had given up 22 or fewer points in seven games in a row before allowing the 34-point outburst by the Vikings. Green Bay was without RB Aaron Jones who is out with a knee injury. Jones will not play this Sunday either and is listed as out indefinitely. Backup A.J. Dillon stepped in last week and played well. He rushed for 53 yards on 11 carries and added another 44 yards on six receptions.

The once-vaunted Rams defense has been rather mediocre in 2021. Los Angeles added former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Von Miller to the equation, but the rewards have yet to pay off. The Rams have given up 31 and 28 points in their last two games. That comes after a four-game stretch – all wins by the way – in which the Rams allowed 22, 19, 11, and 17. If L.A. cannot keep Rodgers and company in check, they are in for a long day.

What will really help Green Bay is the lovely fall weather. It’s that time of year when the temperatures begin to dip in Wisconsin. Game-time temperatures are expected to be in the 32-degree range. There is no sign of precipitation in the forecast, but there is some wind. Winds range from eight to 14 degrees and that could play a significant role in Sunday’s outcome.

The Rams do not do well when they play at Lambeau Field. They have only won three of the last ten games overall in this series and that includes losses in each of the last three games in Green Bay. On top of that, Los Angeles is 0-7 ATS in the last seven trips to Wisconsin.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford has been off of his game lately. In the two losses, Stafford has averaged 268.5 passing yards per game. In the first eight games of the season, he averaged 309.7 yards per game with 22 touchdowns. The Packers have the seventh-best pass defense in the league. With the cold and wind adding another burden to the Rams offense, Green Bay has the perfect opportunity to get back on the right side of things with a win on Sunday. They make a statement by covering the spread. Back the Packers -1.

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