Sunday football, week 11 - Ravens @ Bears

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Time: 1:00 PM ET, Nov. 21, 2021
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.
Current Line: BAL -5  Total: 45

Coming off a huge upset loss to Miami last Thursday, the Baltimore Ravens look to get back on track as they travel to Chicago to take on the 3-6 Bears. The Ravens are 6-3 and cannot afford another letdown against a team they should beat, at least on paper. Baltimore leads the AFC North, but the division is wide open as Pittsburgh (5-3-1), Cincinnati (5-4), and Cleveland (5-5) are all within striking distance.

Sunday’s game will be the first for Chicago since its bye last week. The Bears had some time to regroup after four straight tough losses. Chicago was beaten handily by Green Bay (24-14) and Tampa Bay (38-3) before dropping a 33-22 decision to San Francisco and then losing in the final seconds to Pittsburgh 29-27 on a Monday night.

There is a reason why Baltimore is favored in this game. Not only is Chicago just 3-6, but the Bears have what could be the absolute worst offense in the NFL. Currently, they rank 29th in the league in scoring averaging just 16.7 points per game. You don’t win a lot of games in the NFL when you can’t even score three touchdowns a game.

The reason Chicago can’t score is related to the fact that the offense struggles to move the ball. The Bears are 31st in total offense putting up just 280.7 yards per game. The passing offense is dead last in the league averaging a moribund 144.1 yards. In a league that is typically defined as a passing league, the Bears are simply awful. Part of their shortcomings in the passing game have to do with starting a rookie quarterback.

Justin Fields, the Bears first-round draft pick this season, has had a tough go of it. He has completed just 59.4 percent of his passes so far for 1,282 yards and just four touchdowns. He has thrown eight interceptions and much of that is likely due to being continually harassed by opposing defenses. Fields has played in nine games and has been sacked 29 times. Heading into a game knowing you’re going to be taken to the ground roughly four times per game does not help a quarterback’s confidence.

In the game against the Steelers, Fields did improve somewhat. He completed 17-of-29 passes for 291 yards. He threw one touchdown, but was picked off once and sacked three times. He did, though, lead a seven-play, 75-yard scoring drive capped by his 16-yard scoring pass to Darnell Mooney that gave the Bears a 27-26 lead with just 1:46 to play.

While the Bears are weak on offense, the defense can be a strength. If they take a page out of Miami’s playbook from last week, Baltimore should expect a ton of pressure with Cover 0 (man-to-man) behind it. Chicago’s best pass rusher LB Khalil Mack has missed the last two games but is expected to play on Sunday. The Bears are 10th in the league against the pass, but playing Cover 0 and locking up on all the receivers can be a gamble.

It’s an especially big gamble with a quarterback like Lamar Jackson running the show for Baltimore. Jackson leads the Ravens in rushing with 639 yards. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing averaging 154.1 yards per game. The Bears defense? They rank 23rd against the run. The perfect way to get Chicago out of playing Cover 0 is a heavy dose of the running game.

Expect the Ravens to establish the run and be prepared for all sorts of exotic blitzes and man coverage on passing downs. Defensively, Baltimore is fourth against the run which will help the Ravens take away what the Bears do best. The Ravens are actually dead last against the pass, but Fields and the Chicago passing game might not be able to take advantage of Baltimore’s weakness.

Ultimately, this is a game that Baltimore should win and has to win. Not only do the need a win, but a win that sends a message would be even better. In sending that message, the Ravens are going to shut down the Bears offense and cover the 5-point spread.