Sunday Night Football, week 7 - Colts @ 49ers

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Time: 8:20 PM ET, Oct. 24, 2021
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Current Line: SF -4 Total: 44

The 2021 NFL season is just over one-third of the way completed and already the San Francisco 49ers are facing a must-win situation. The Niners started the season 2-0 but have now lost three straight to fall to 2-3. If San Francisco is to have any chance of making the playoffs this year, the time is now to turn the season around.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team has two very winnable games the next two weeks before having to face NFC West foe Arizona again. It starts with a visit from the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday night. The Colts are just 2-4 with a pair of wins over Miami and Houston. Those two teams have a combined two victories thus far this season.

Last week, Indy beat the Texans 31-3. Quarterback Carson Wentz finally played like he is capable going 11-of-20 for 223 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 145 yards against a Texans team that is simply bad. Indianapolis should have beaten Houston, and they did. They beat a bad football team. San Francisco is not a bad football team, just one with some issues.

The 49ers are a couple plays here and there from being 5-0. They do have some quarterback issues with nagging injuries to both Jimmy Garoppolo and their rookie Trey Lance who started the team’s last game, a 17-10 loss to unbeaten Arizona. There are also the injuries to TE George Kittle and K Robbie Gould. Despite their issues, the 49ers are four-point favorites heading into Sunday night’s game.

One bonus for San Francisco is the bye they enjoyed last week. That gave the 49ers an extra week to recuperate and prepare for the Colts. Conventional thinking would say that San Francisco would have an advantage over the Colts who played last week. History actually says otherwise. Since 2014, the 49ers are 9-18 straight up in games where they had a rest advantage over their opponent. San Francisco’s record against the spread in those games isn’t much better – 10-17.

What does give the Niners an advantage is playing at home. Since 2011, San Francisco is 46-38-1 when playing at home. They are even better when they are the favorite playing at home – 34-19-1. Bettors should note that the 49ers numbers are not as favorable against the spread. In that same time period, the Niners are 39-44-2 ATS at home. As the home favorite, they are just 23-30-1 ATS.

The Colts have actually beaten the 49ers each of the last four times the teams have played. They only face each other once every four years. Indy won the last game 26-23 in San Francisco in 2017. None of that really matters as both teams have turned over their rosters since then.

Indianapolis was fortunate to have WR T.Y. Hilton back in the lineup last week. It was Hilton’s first appearance of the season and he ended up with four receptions for 80 yards. He did tweak a quad and is listed as questionable for Sunday night but he is expected to play again. That will be a big boost for Wentz who has struggled at times this season.

Prior to beating Houston, the Colts held a 22-3 lead over Baltimore in a Monday night game. They squandered that lead and ended up losing to the Ravens in overtime. If the Colts defense can play like it did for the first half or so of that Ravens game on Sunday night, Indy can keep this game close.

Keeping games close is something the Colts have done recently. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the 49ers and the Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road. Indy hasn’t had the greatest luck playing on Sunday night though. In their last eight appearances on Sunday Night Football, the Colts are just 2-6 straight up.

Sunday night’s total of 44 is reflective of two pretty solid defenses. Three of the last four 49ers games have gone Under as did last week’s Indy-Houston game. The total has gone Over in five of the Colts last six road games. Bet this game here.

All that said, the Colts have been playing well the last two weeks. They have been able to keep games close enough to cover and they have played well on the road. They may not be able to pull off the upset, but Indy can keep this game within a field.